China’s economy looks to expand 17.9% for the January-March quarter,
a growth figure inflated by the coronavirus-related crash in the year-ago period, a survey of 32 economists by Nikkei and Nikkei Quick News finds.
The economists predict 1.0% growth on a seasonally adjusted,
the quarter-on-quarter basis for the first three months of 2021, as momentum slows from a 2.6% gain in the fourth quarter of 2020.
Two-thirds of the economists also think China will overtake the U.S. to become the world’s largest economy sometime between 2030 and 2034, benefiting from its containment of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Growth estimates for the first quarter of 2021 range from 12% to 20.8%. Of the 24 valid responses,
19 economists expect a rate of 18% or more including Aidan Yao,
senior emerging Asia economist at AXA Investment Managers, who forecast 18.8% growth.
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