A multi speed economic recovery is underway, reflecting the significant variations among countries in containing the coronavirus and acquiring and administering vaccines. But notwithstanding these differences in timing, there will soon be a cascading sequence of rapid recoveries around the world. Sectors that had to shut down because they could not function without unsafe human-to-human proximity will now (or soon) reopen.
Businesses that survived the pandemic closures (many with support from fiscal programs) will experience rapid expansion, powered by pent-up demand. Growth rates will surge for a limited period of time before subsiding toward normal levels.
Between this changing outlook and the forced adoption of digital technologies during the pandemic, there is now a heightened awareness of both the opportunity and the necessity for digitalization, which is reflected in high and rising demand for technological solutions. In all three areas, many years of research and innovation have yielded powerful scientific tools and technologies that are becoming broadly available for entrepreneurs and investors who aim to tackle specific problems. At the same time, the techno-entrepreneurial ecosystems that were once concentrated in just a few places have expanded globally, resulting in an interconnected web of investors and entrepreneurs sharing insights, transferring technology and adapting to local conditions.
The startup “unicorns”－those with a value of over $1 billion－once associated with Silicon Valley and a few other high-tech hubs can now be found in growing numbers across a wide range of developed and middle-income countries, and in surprising sectors like education.In short, the systems that unleash entrepreneurial talent are increasingly taking root around the world. This is partly because governments have recognized the opportunities in these sectors and duly stepped up their game. The fiscal programs coming out of the pandemic have been far more aggressive than in the past.
Commitments to invest in infrastructure (including digital), science and technology are expanding, not just in the United States and China, but also in Europe, across the digital, biomedical and green-tech sectors.
As a recent study by the McKinsey Global Institute sets forth, the digital transformation may be broad enough that it will help to raise overall productivity growth substantially.
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